These days it’s hard to know what is happening in the housing market. Is it rising or falling? There are plenty of people out there trying to predict what is going to happen. The problem is that they are looking nationwide or citywide. Investors need to know what is happening in their specific farm area, though. Here are the top ways to determine whether your market go up or down in 2010.
Prices rise or fall in a specific market based on a number of different factors, and every market will move based on its own unique conditions. Within that market, even different property types and neighborhoods will react differently.
You want to look at homes that are within a 1 mile radius from the center of your farm area. You also should look at the at homes that are within 10% of the median square footage of the homes you would like to buy and sell.
Home prices are for the most part determined by the months of housing inventory available. Price changes tend to lag behind changes in inventory by about 6-10 months. So if housing inventory increases, you will see a decrease in prices about 6-10 months later. If the inventory decreases, prices will then rise about 6-10 months later. Real estate investors are able to use short sales to offer deeply discounted prices when they sell houses before the rest of the homes in an area catch up.
As a general rule, prices will fall if there are 8 or more months of inventory available. They will rise if there are 2-3 months available. This is a solid rule to use for your market in 2010.
In many areas the first round of the First Time Homebuyer credit could not quench the high demand for starter homes. If your are is one of them, the feeding frenzy for lower end homes could continue. Since the credit was expanded to all buyers, sales and prices may be boosted because there will be a larger supply of both homes and buyers available. The impact of the credit might not be that large, though. Only 6% of people who bought homes this last fall said that they did it because of the tax credit.
Gen Y’ers (1977-1994) are in their prime home-buying years. It will take a relatively small increase in demand to spark building in those parts of the country that generate jobs for this age group and have remained relatively stable during the recession.
The cost of ownership is another factor that directly drives up the price of homes. In 2010, the U.S. Treasury will play a very important role in determining whether the market will rise or fall. There was been little incentive shown by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2009, but it might be different in 2010. The Fed might experience pressure to raise interest rates in order to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even just a small increase in interest rates could drive potential buyers out of the market.
State income taxes and local property taxes could increase in the coming year as the local governments face pressure to balance their budgets in 2011. Any increase in property taxes will decrease the number of buyers in the market.
Lastly, foreclosure rates could play a very important role in your area. There will be spikes in foreclosure rates all around the country. Especially in those areas that relied heavily on Option ARM mortgages to sell homes between 2004 and 2007. Their payments will adjust up as interest rates necessarily increase. Communities already experiencing high unemployment will also be facing an increase in foreclosures.
These are just a few of the factors that will impact your local market conditions in 2010. Apply the ones that fit. Every market and micro-market will be different.
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